Islam must decide its own future

Let us try to be wise. Let us try at least to be logical.

There has been some strange loose talk recently. A retired military commander has predicted that we will be fighting radical Islam for the next hundred years. This was reported in all seriousness on the front page of The Australian. A journalist writing for the same newspaper suggested that the struggle will last for a generation or more.

To paraphrase the late Douglas Adams: I love predictions.  I love the whooshing sound they make as they fizzle and invariably fail to come true.

Nobody alive can predict accurately what will happen next week, let alone next year or ten years from now.

What disturbs me is the general assumption that we will be fighting Islam anywhere. We are not fighting it now. There is no reason for us to start.

There is a conflict of ideas and values within Islam itself. There is no war in the conventional sense with clear borders and objectives, though bombs and bullets rain and armies are on the march. It is mostly Muslims who are dying - in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. The United States is an incidental target because it has been interfering in Arab and Islamic affairs for a very long time. So are we potential targets, for the same reason and by virtue of our alliance with the United States.

I can almost pity George Bush Jnr. Faced with the tragedy of 9/11 he reacted with massive force in a misguided foreign adventure which delivered thousands of young Americans conveniently within shooting distance. And some of our troops too.

Never do what your enemy wants you to do or expects you to do.

The response became, inexplicably, simple invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. Out of all this and from a mire of Islamic sects, hatreds, feuds and rivalries has emerged the sinister Islamic State, a well funded non-country which is attracting thugs from all over the world, giving them a 'cause' to mask and dignify their inclinations to brutality and murder.

Now is the time for us to prove ourselves a clever country by suggesting to our allies that there is another way to win this non-war in which people are nevertheless dying.

We need to engage Arab and Islamic leaders in finding solutions to Arab and Islamic problems. The ground fighting is in their back yard. The conflict of ideas and values is in their back yard. Only they can deal with it. Only Muslim voices and aspirations can carry the debate and decide the future of Islam. Iraq's neighbours are wealthy and well-armed. Let them be good neighbours. Together they may achieve a unified Islam which can "live out the true meaning of its creed".

There have been encouraging signs in recent weeks. The outgoing Indonesian President Yudhoyono has said that "All leaders must review how to combat extremism." The British Islamic Council has spoken out about the "poison of extremism". The Australian National Imams Council has condemned "crimes against humanity and sins against God... lies and betrayal of our faith".

                                                                                                                   

If history teaches us anything (apart from the folly of making predictions) it is that change can come quickly, in fact with astonishing rapidity.

There was a time when it seemed that Communism would endure and the Berlin Wall stand for centuries. The Wall came down in a few days and the Communist nations disintegrated. (China ceased to be Communist but keeps pretending.)

There was a time when it seemed that Apartheid would endure and Nelson Mandela would die in prison. South Africa tired of its own history and Mandela walked free.

Northern Ireland found a way to end its sectarianism and bloodshed.

Change is possible. A change of heart is possible. They are the targets we should be aiming for in Iraq and Afghanistan - everywhere really - with a little clear thinking and some courage put to better use than on any battlefield.